Were Boeing just lucky with the 787?

An article in The New Yorker has an interesting view of the Boeing/Airbus battle. They say “you make your luck” and that’s true but perhaps it takes a little luck to “make it”. Boeing 787 & Airbus A380 are great products so is the difference foresight reading shifting economic/market demands or just a little bit of luck. Time will tell.

THE FATAL-FLAW MYTH - The New Yorker: The Talk of the Town
Because we underestimate how much variation can be caused simply by luck, we see patterns where none exist. It’s no wonder that management theory is dominated by fads: every few years, new companies succeed, and they are scrutinized for the underlying truths that they might reveal. But often there is no underlying truth; the companies just happened to be in the right place at the right time.

THE FATAL-FLAW MYTH - The New Yorker: The Talk of the Town


Because we underestimate how much variation can be caused simply by luck, we see patterns where none exist. It’s no wonder that management theory is dominated by fads: every few years, new companies succeed, and they are scrutinized for the underlying truths that they might reveal. But often there is no underlying truth; the companies just happened to be in the right place at the right time.

In the decade or so that Airbus has been a serious competitor to Boeing, this is its first really bad patch, and its difficulties are due mainly to making one bad bet while Boeing made one good one. That’s a minuscule sample size on which to base any kind of conclusion.

In the decade or so that Airbus has been a serious competitor to Boeing, this is its first really bad patch, and its difficulties are due mainly to making one bad bet while Boeing made one good one. That’s a minuscule sample size on which to base any kind of conclusion.